From：CTECHI GROUP Limited Release time：2018-12-03
Overview：2018 is about to enter the final quarter, and the power batteries of early electric vehicles will also enter the retirement period. However, the immature power battery recycling link and the high cost problem in the process of precise treatment will certainly bury hidden dangers to the industry.
2018 is about to enter the final quarter, and the power batteries of early electric vehicles will also enter the retirement period. However, the immature power battery recycling link and the high cost problem in the process of precise treatment will certainly bury hidden dangers to the industry.
The so-called crisis may also mean danger and opportunity. The popularity of new energy vehicles is an undeniable fact. From the original intention of its vigorous promotion, environmental benefits are very weighted. However, with the progress of industrial chain evolution, power battery treatment may offset the expected benefits.
Lithium batteries, as devices for the conversion of chemical energy and electric energy, have been experiencing relatively reversible chemical reactions in their interior, while the side reactions between negative electrodes and electrolytes are the main limiting factors for their cycle life. Usually consumable batteries have a life cycle of 3-6 years. According to the function and replacement frequency of electrical appliances, their abandonment period is about 5 years.
Since the promotion of new energy vehicles started after 2013, it can be estimated that the first batteries replacement pilot will be around 2018. The market is generally expected to usher in the first peak of power battery scrap in 2018. From 2018 to 2020, the total number of power batteries scrapped in China will reach 120,000 to 200,000 tons. There is a more radical view that by 2020, scrap will reach 280,000-300,000 tons.
It is understood that at present, for "decommissioned" power batteries, the current treatment methods are mainly divided into two kinds: cascade utilization and disassembly and recycling.
The so-called "cascade utilization" refers to the use of high-power batteries for low-power after testing. Its principle is similar to that stated in a battery advertisement: the batteries used in toy cars can also be used by remote controllers. At present, the cascade utilization is only for the power batteries that are slightly discarded and applied to low-power electrical equipment. In order to achieve the purpose of secondary utilization. The batteries which have reached the level of heavy scrap after the step utilization will enter the disassembly and recycling link.
As the name implies, "disassembly and recovery" is to disassemble, separate, purify and smelt waste batteries by chemical methods, and recycle lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and other metal elements in the batteries. Industry insiders told reporters that, in fact, most of the current power battery processing only to the stage of dismantling to the core, there is no further treatment, and the use of cascades is always endless.
From the point of view of the treatment measures, the cost of chemical treatment is the primary consideration, followed by the evaluation of battery loss and utilization rate, reasonable differential utilization and the cost of the process in the process of cascade utilization. From this point of view, before the technology is immature and the industry has not yet formed its scale, it may be hard to get involved.
Danger or opportunity?
At present, there are few enterprises qualified to disassemble power batteries in China. The evaluation of waste batteries and the development of special technical equipment still need a lot of capital investment. However, there is no fixed recycling channel for raw materials disassembled from batteries. The recycling price of raw materials has been fluctuating. At this stage, it is difficult for battery processing enterprises to achieve a profitable state.
The stage of industrialization will come. Assuming that the battery life cycle of new energy passenger vehicles is 5 years and commercial vehicles are 4 years, and the renewal rate (i.e. the total number of batteries that should be decommissioned when the actual decommissioned batteries/years expire) increases year by year, according to the output of power batteries in recent years, it can be estimated that by 2018, the number of power batteries newly discarded or discarded will reach 11.14GWh, which is much larger than the same period last year. An increase of 278.9%.
In recent years, behind the increasing sales of electric vehicles, it also means that the scrap volume will show a high driving force, and the market space will be very attractive. According to relevant data, it is estimated that by 2020, the total amount of waste power batteries in China will reach about 200,000 tons. Industry forecast data show that in 2018, the waste power battery recycling market will reach 5 billion yuan. From 2020 to 2023, the waste power battery recycling market will further grow to 13.6-31 billion yuan.
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