From：CTECHI GROUP Limited Release time：2019-01-10
Overview：With the continuous expansion of the application field, the lithium battery market has grown rapidly. The industry revenue scale has increased rapidly from $5.312 billion in 2003 to $27.55 billion in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 17.89%. It has played an important role in the global research and development of new energy sources.
I. Industry situation
(1) Professional profile and life cycle
With the continuous expansion of the application field, the lithium battery market has grown rapidly. The industry revenue scale has increased rapidly from $5.312 billion in 2003 to $27.55 billion in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 17.89%. It has played an important role in the global research and development of new energy sources. The lithium battery industry is growing rapidly, technology is becoming stereotyped, industry characteristics, competition situation and user characteristics are relatively clear, barriers to entry are gradually raised, and the number of products and competitors is increasing, so it belongs to the growth period in the industry life cycle.
(2) The relationship between industry and upstream and downstream
Lithium batteries are mainly made of positive material, negative material, electrolyte and diaphragm, which determine the discharge voltage, pulse current and duration of lithium batteries. Lithium batteries are composed of protective circuit boards and shells. The cathode materials are lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate, lithium iron phosphate, nickel manganese cobalt and aluminum foil, and the cathode materials are graphite and copper foil. Lithium batteries can be supplied directly to the manufacturer of finished batteries or assembled into lithium batteries with integrated circuits, PCB boards, embedded software and other materials.
Lithium battery products are widely distributed in downstream areas, mainly in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, industrial energy storage and other fields. Consumer electronic products are mainly mobile phones, laptops, tablets; electric vehicles are mainly electric bicycles, electric vehicles; industrial energy storage is mainly used in electric tools, communication base stations and other industries.
(3) Industry scale and development trend
According to statistics, the proportion of traditional 3C electronic demand in lithium batteries declined from 80% in 2012 to 53% in 2015. Thanks to the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the proportion of lithium power increased from 11% to 28%. This trend will continue in the future. It is expected that the proportion of power will reach 47% by 2020.
In the 12th Five-Year Plan, the government has incorporated new energy vehicles into seven strategic emerging industries, guided the industrial application of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles, and gave instructions for supporting the construction of charging facilities. While continuing the direction of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the 13th Five-Year Plan deepens the position of new energy vehicles in the overall strategy. At present, the policy framework is based on car purchase and extends to infrastructure construction, unlimited number, unlimited travel, toll relief, tax incentives and credit support for car purchase. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will reach 5 million by 2020.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2016, 13.25 billion pieces of service business were completed in the whole country. It is estimated that by 2020, 50 billion pieces of service business will be completed in the whole country, with an annual income of 800 billion yuan and a huge market base. Since this year, more than 10 provinces and municipalities have introduced policies to support electric logistics vehicles, including generous subsidies, priority of road rights and so on, indirectly promoting the development of electric logistics vehicles. It is estimated that the domestic production of electric logistics vehicles will exceed 400,000 by 2020, quadrupling that of 2016, and the increment will exceed one million vehicles in the next five years. According to the average price of 200,000 yuan per vehicle, the corresponding direct market scale will exceed 200 billion yuan.
Battery is the core of the three major components of new energy vehicles, accounting for 40-60% of the cost of new energy vehicles. It is also the main factor of the high cost of new energy vehicles. With the vigorous development of new energy vehicles in the world in 2014, power lithium-ion batteries have become the fastest growing part of lithium-ion batteries. At present, the proportion of power batteries is increasing rapidly. In 2015, the absolute increment of lithium-ion power batteries is larger than that of consuming lithium-ion batteries, which has become the primary driving force in the lithium-ion battery market. It is estimated that China's demand for power batteries will be five times that of 2015 in 2020, and the increment during the 13th Five-Year Plan period totals 233.4 GHWh. According to the market price of 1.4 yuan/Wh, the incremental market can be estimated to be 326.76 billion yuan.
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